Executive Thought Leadership

The Mobile Internet: A Work in Progress

Fifteen or 20 years ago, few consumers would have considered a cell phone practical or affordable, let alone a necessity. At the time, cell phones were big, clunky devices and rate plans were extremely expensive.

Today, cell phones are small and convenient, and rate plans are affordable. There are currently some 2.6 billion worldwide mobile phone subscribers, according to estimates from iSuppli, which also predicts there will be approximately 4 billion mobile subscribers worldwide by sometime in 2008. The GSM Association estimates that nearly 18 new users sign up every second. Clearly, consumers love their cell phones.

Meanwhile, use of the Internet has grown exponentially. An estimated 1.093 billion people around the world use the Internet today, up more than 200 percent since 2000, according to Internet World Stats. From the popularity of the cell phone and the Internet, the mobile Internet emerged. The mobile Internet is actually a superset of the cellular phone network. It delivers wireless access for e-mail, instant messaging, the Web, and other content and applications—as well as voice communications—to a connected device just about anywhere, at anytime.

Similar to the early days of cell phones, the mobile Internet hasn't entirely caught on with consumers yet. Some, particularly those in the United States, still view the Internet as something fixed that is only available to them in their offices or homes. Others may assume it's difficult to connect devices to the mobile Internet, or they don't see the advantages the mobile Internet provides.

But those perceptions are changing. While it's safe to say the Internet will never be finished, we are entering the next major phase of its development: mobility. Exciting new applications and services—limited only by the creativity of the market—are emerging to take advantage of the mobile Internet. And while these applications and services were once used only by high-end professionals, consumers are increasingly adopting them as well.

Putting the Technology into Place

To paraphrase Winston Churchill, we are at "the end of the beginning" of the mobile Internet's development. The three areas of technology that comprise the mobile Internet—wireless networks, wireless devices, and the Internet infrastructure that supports them—are beginning to come together.

New third-generation wireless wide-area network technologies, such as HSDPA and EV-DO, are giving consumers mobile Internet access at broadband-like speeds wherever they go. Wi-Fi networks offer even faster speeds using local-area networks. WiMAX technology, which offers longer-range coverage than Wi-Fi, is now becoming available. Handsets capable of switching seamlessly between cellular phone and Wi-Fi networks are beginning to appear as well.

At the same time, a variety of mobile Internet devices are now available for different applications. For example, a business person may use a Palm Treo for voice communications, e-mail, calendaring, and access to customer records while a teenager may use a cell phone to download and listen to music.

With all the pieces of the mobile Internet falling into place, new applications are emerging to take advantage. For example, today the mobile Internet connects automobiles to services like OnStar that provide drivers with roadside assistance. In-car navigation systems receive real-time traffic updates. Consumers can watch video programs on their cell phones.

Moving Into the Mainstream

Initially, cell phones were primarily used by high-end business professionals. Then the technology expanded into the consumer market. The same trend is true for the mobile Internet. Early adopters—business professionals with BlackBerrys in hand—drove the evolution of the mobile Internet. Today, consumers of all types, particularly younger ones, are increasingly interested in watching streaming video, downloading music on the go, and so on. Development of the mobile Internet is now driven as much by consumers as it is by business users.

The impact of the mobile Internet on consumers at work and at play is enormous. For instance, the mobile Internet makes collaboration on the go a much more rewarding experience. You could be in an airport, participating in a conference call while you also view the presentation that's being given in real time. A traveler could opt to have information about his surroundings sent to his mobile device, such as a review of a restaurant in his immediate vicinity.

Bridging the Digital Divide

Landline telephone networks never reached majority penetration in developing countries such as China, India, and Indonesia because of the high cost of running the wires fast enough to meet demand. The same is true for wired Internet connectivity; it's cost prohibitive for providers to extend that kind of infrastructure everywhere.

Concurrently, wireless devices are more affordable. And so, in developing nations, the mobile network has become the network. Many people's first experience with a phone is with a mobile phone, and their first experience with the Internet may be with the mobile Internet. There's just no other viable alternative.

As a result, the mobile Internet—though still in its infancy in the developing world—is bringing voice communications and Web-based information to people who otherwise wouldn't have it. The implications of this, in terms of education, democracy, and business productivity, are huge. Spontaneous protests are quickly organized using mobile messaging. Residents of developing countries armed with mobile handsets are helping combat voter fraud, crime, and other social problems. The mobile Internet provides developing countries with a real economic benefit, and that gives their citizens hope.

Disappearing Distinctions

Cisco played an important role in the development of the infrastructure for the fixed Internet, and we have the vision to play a significant role in the development of the mobile Internet as well. As we see it, the mobile Internet will become the main way people go online, just as cell phones are becoming the predominant way people have voice communications. Distinctions between the fixed and the mobile Internet will disappear in the consumer's mind as wireless networks, devices, and the infrastructure to support them spread across the globe, and as innovative new uses for the mobile Internet emerge. In time, the Internet will be the mobile Internet, delivering education, communication, collaboration, information—and opportunity—to everyone.